Are we prepared?

Disruptive climate events

Climate change is undoubtedly one of the most pressing challenges of our time. The steady build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, mainly CO2, is causing drastic changes in our climate, presenting a series of disruptive climatic elements that will affect our lives for decades to come. Our relationship with the climate is closer than we might think, as our entire food system, our own circadian rhythms and social and cultural relationships, such as festivals, are based on systems that have been more or less stable over decades and centuries. All this is changing and forcing us to understand the real value of this change. We will try to identify these phenomena, offer historical examples and discuss possible solutions for a more sustainable future.

Rising Global Temperatures.

One of the most notorious and widely discussed effects of climate change is the rise in global temperatures. Since pre-industrial times, the global average temperature has risen by approximately 1.1°C, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). And the projections are not encouraging: if no significant action is taken, we could see an increase of up to 4°C by the end of this century (IPCC, 2018). This temperature rise is not just a number on a graph; its effects are tangible and devastating. Heat waves are becoming more intense and frequent, glaciers and ice sheets are melting at an alarming rate, and wildfires are becoming more frequent and destructive. The 2003 heat wave in Europe, for example, was a tragedy that killed more than 70,000 people (Robine et al., 2008).

And the impact on our environment is not insignificant: the bleaching of corals, which represent 25% of marine diversity in just 1% of the ocean’s surface area, is a very serious problem. In addition, neighbouring coastal areas feed on the fish that live there, and the relationship with the economy, tourism and the trophic chain itself endangers the life of these regions, affecting the safety of millions of people living in coastal areas and the integrity of adjacent infrastructure and terrestrial habitats.

This image represents the temperatures recorded from 1850 (records with thermometers of the time and where industrialisation with fossil fuels begins) to 2019, in which you can see how the colour changes from a darker blue, relative to temperatures lower than the global average, to a deep red with the increase of records above the average.

This image shows temperatures recorded from 1850 (the start of thermometer records and the start of fossil fuel industrialisation) to 2019, and you can see how the colour changes from a darker blue when temperatures are below the global average, to a deep red as records above the average increase.

Historically, there have been periods of warmer temperatures, such as the Medieval Climate Optimum (around 950-1250 AD). However, these variations were regional and not comparable in magnitude and global impact to the changes we are experiencing today. The difference now is the speed and global scale of human-induced warming, which is confirmed year after year by a scientific consensus of 98% of published government studies (IPCC, 2023).

Changing rainfall patterns.

Climate change is also altering precipitation patterns around the world. As climatologist Kevin Trenberth has noted, “Precipitation patterns are changing, and we can expect to see more droughts and more floods” (WHA Conference, 2013). A historical example is the Dust Bowl of the 1930s in the United States, a series of prolonged droughts that devastated the Midwest, displacing thousands of people and causing enormous economic losses. Such events, exacerbated by climate change, may become more frequent and severe.

Changes in rainfall patterns affect freshwater availability, agriculture and biodiversity. Cyclone Idai, which hit south-east Africa in 2019, is a recent example of how rainfall variability can trigger humanitarian disasters (WMO, 2019). This cyclone caused severe flooding and displaced millions of people, highlighting the vulnerability of many regions to these extreme changes. Water availability has implications for global food supply, as the water cycle cannot be altered. Options such as seawater desalination require huge amounts of energy and associated costs that ultimately make food itself more expensive, leading to territorial and transnational imbalances. The concept of water wars, so much a part of blockbuster film dystopias, is now being explored as a possible factor. This is reflected in the latest UN World Water Development Report 2024, published by UNESCO on behalf of UN-Water, which notes that water-related tensions are exacerbating conflicts on a global scale. To maintain peace, states must strengthen international cooperation and transboundary agreements.

Melting ice sheets around the world.

Melting ice sheets and the thermal expansion of water due to warming are causing sea levels to rise. NASA reports that sea levels have risen about 20 centimetres since 1880, and projections indicate that they will continue to rise significantly (NASA, 2019). To understand the potential impact, we can look back to the end of the last Ice Age, around 12,000 years ago, when melting glaciers led to significant sea level rise, transforming global geography. Today, many coastal cities, such as Venice and Miami, already face regular flooding and are projected to face even greater challenges in the future (IPCC, 2019).

An almost irreversible loss of 200,000 glaciers has been recorded in Europe, Africa, Oceania, Asia and the Americas. At least half of these glaciers could disappear by 2100.

Disruptive and extreme weather events.

Climate change is intensifying extreme weather events such as hurricanes, storms and heat waves. According to climatologist Michael Mann, “we are seeing more intense and destructive hurricanes because of global warming” (Mann, AGU Conference, 2017). Hurricane Katrina in 2005 is a reminder of the devastation a single event can cause. This hurricane resulted in more than 1,800 deaths and economic damages estimated at $125 billion (NOAA, 2005). With global warming, the frequency and intensity of such storms are increasing, posing a growing threat to communities around the world.

In addition to the loss of life and destruction of infrastructure, these extreme events can lead to humanitarian crises and massive population displacement. The intensification of these phenomena is a constant and pervasive threat that requires long-term mitigation and adaptation strategies. And do we have the solutions? Despite these challenges, there are many actions we can take to mitigate the effects of climate change and adapt to its inevitable consequences. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is essential. Switching to renewable energy, such as solar and wind, is essential to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels. In addition, electrification of transport and improved energy efficiency in buildings can make a significant contribution to reducing emissions.

To adapt to the inevitable changes, we need to build resilient infrastructure. This includes building dikes and flood barriers, as well as implementing early warning systems for extreme events. Cities and communities need to plan and prepare for the impacts of climate change.

Reforestation and the protection of natural ecosystems are effective strategies for mitigating climate change. Forests act as carbon sinks and their protection is essential to maintain the carbon balance in the atmosphere. Reforestation and forest conservation initiatives can play a crucial role in combating climate change.

Raising public awareness and educating new generations about the importance of sustainability and climate change is crucial. Education programmes and awareness-raising campaigns can encourage more sustainable behaviour and greater support for mitigation and adaptation measures.

International cooperation and the implementation of global policies, such as the Paris Agreement, are essential to effectively tackle climate change. Governments must work together to set and meet emission reduction targets and promote sustainable development.

Climate change poses significant challenges that will affect our lives for decades to come. From rising temperatures and sea levels to changes in precipitation patterns and extreme weather events, it is vital that we take action to mitigate these impacts and adapt to the inevitable changes. Only through a combination of mitigation, adaptation and global cooperation can we meet these challenges and ensure a sustainable future for future generations.

References

IPCC (2018). Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C.

Robine, J. M., et al. (2008). ‘Death toll exceeded 70,000 in Europe during the summer of 2003.’ C. R. Biologies.

WHA Conference (2013). Statements by Kevin Trenberth.

WMO. (2019). Report on Cyclone Idai.

NASA. (2019). Sea Level Change Data.

Mann, M. (2017). Statements at the AGU Conference.

NOAA. (2005). Report on Hurricane Katrina.

IPCC (2019). Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate.