How longer?
From the far past to the present
The human being has known and used fuels for thousand years. Wood, animal and vegetable fats, charcoal, fossil fuels… all of them have accompanied and played a crucial role in the development of humanity.
Fossil Fuels are specifically relevant in our recent history. These compounds come from the natural decomposition of living organisms through chemical and biological processes that can take millions of years. It was not until the last quarter of the 19th century that technological development around thermal machines gave rise to the so-called First Industrial Revolution, making coal the first fossil fuel to ignite our industrial development. This revolution in production processes involved the steam engine and its use in industry and transport, was the base for the industrial economy that subsequently developed during the 20th century.
Since then and up to the present day, these fuels have been the main source of energy for the society due to their relative abundance, high energy density, versatility, easy storage and transport, and the great development of technologies to make the most of them. However, despite their many advantages, welfare and development they have brought to humanity, scientific studies have been pointing out for decades about the impact that gases emissions derived from the use of hydrocarbons has on climatic processes and the biosphere. These gases accumulate in the atmosphere, contributing to the greenhouse effect that, in a delicate balance of energy between the Earth, the Sun and outer space, is conducive to life. The higher concentration of these gases contributes to a higher retention of energy within the atmosphere, which gradually raises the temperature at a rate that would naturally be very unusual, with the corresponding difficulty for living organisms to adapt to these new conditions. To make matters worse, the rate of emissions of these gases has never decreased, as human energy consumption has never stopped increasing over the last 100 years.
However, it is not all bad news. For decades, at the beginning, for political, economic, scientific, or even military reasons, humans have been developing energy generation technologies that do not require fossil fuels. Therefore, at a time of greater awareness of the impact of fossil fuels on our environment, there are now alternatives that do not impact on atmospheric gases that we can use to maintain our level of development, which highly depend on energy. Although, we have the evidence that fossil fuels are still the main source of energy for the humanity in all areas, as electricity generation or transport, renewable energy generation technologies already account for 29.6% of the electricity generation sources and are on a rising trend.
This trend towards the increasingly presence of alternative energy sources in the global energy variety of choices, is accompanied by a recent slowdown in the consumption of fossil fuels due to rising extraction costs, reduced availability of deposits, stricter regulations and penalisation of pollutant gas emissions and greater economic competitiveness of alternative energies. Additionally, recent historical events (not reflected in the data series presented in this article) such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine have forced us to rethink the current model of energy dependence between fossil fuel producing and consuming countries, with the weaknesses and fragilities that this implies when we face events such as those recently experienced.
Focusing on Spain and its consumption of fossil fuels, this country is a major consumer of oil and natural gas, for transport on the one hand and for electricity generation, industrial and residential uses on the other, while coal has been gradually disappearing from the energy choice. Starting with coal, we observe that its presence in the Spanish energy choices reduced due to its low economic interest and high tax and regulatory policy on its polluting emissions. It has been replaced by renewable sources of electricity generation and combined cycle gas plants.
In the case of gas, its more important consumers in Spain are industry and the population, who need it for domestic needs; however, there has been a change in the tendency in recent years, with electricity generation gaining weight in the use of gas. Finally, the main use of oil in Spain is to fuel transport, mainly by road, and despite having seen a drop since the peak of consumption prior to the 2008 crisis, its consumption has remained relatively stable since then. It is expected that with the higher introduction of electric vehicles in the Spanish market, the dependence of oil will eventually decrease. Following the European energy strategy, it is expected a trend towards electrification of every process and industry as much as possible, and the substitution of fossil fuels by biofuels or synthetic fuels whenever possible.
And… for how long?
The change in the energy paradigm and the current strategy of independence is leading a gradual replacement of traditional fossil fuels with renewable energies and fuels. Rising hydrocarbon prices, geopolitical tensions, electric mobility, the electrification of processes, the economic penalties associated with greenhouse gas emissions, among many other reasons, mark the beginning of a revolution in the field of energy. According to European Union forecasts, from 2050 onwards, the results of current energy policies will begin to be palpable, with a scenario of significantly lower hydrocarbon consumption, particularly of oil and petroleum, due to their easier substitution through the electrification of the processes currently powered by these fuels. Soon, alternatives such as biofuels, electricity from renewable sources, mass electrical storage or hydrogen are expected to play a more important role, all of them technologies that are currently more or less immature and economically uncompetitive. However, even if their use is contained, fossil fuels will continue to be an important source of energy. The future is renewable and increasingly cleaner, but we must be aware that the fuel will play a role, although on a smaller scale in many processes.
