Strategic materials

Material basis for the energy transition

Introduction

The energy transition relies on an unprecedented material base: from copper, which carries electricity, to lithium and graphite, which enable energy storage in batteries. Critical mineral resources are essential for the production of affordable and abundant energy technologies, as well as for the global economy in general, but their supply chains are particularly vulnerable. This report summarises the main figures, critical materials, deposit locations and trends for the coming decades. The CRMA (EU) has set the following targets for 2030: 10% extraction, 40% processing, 25% internal recycling and ≤65% dependence on a single third country per material.

The 12 key materials: applications, quantities and where they are found

The table summarises the application, magnitude and geographical focus. These is organized by magnitude useful for planning; specific figures vary by scenario and source.

Material	Energy application	Magnitudes 2024–2040 (indicative)	Where (mining/refining)
Copper (Cu)	Cables/networks/transformers	Demand ≈ +50% by 2040 (NZE); identified resources ≥1,5 Bt; undiscovered ~3,5 Bt	Extraction: Chile, Peru, DRC, EE.UU., Australia; global smelting
Aluminium (Al)	Structures, conductors	Very volume-intensive (infrastructure)	Bauxite: Guinea, Australia, China; primary: China, Russia
Lithium (Li)	Batteries (EV/storage)	Demand ≈ ×8 by 2040 (NZE); +30% by 2023	Chile/Argentina/Australia (mining); China (refining)
Nickel (Ni)	NMC/NCA cathodes	≈ ×2 by 2040 (NZE)	Indonesia, Philippines, Russia; diversified refining
Cobalt (Co)	Batteries/catalysts	≈ ×2 by 2040 (NZE); high concentration	DRC (mining); China (refining)
Graphite	Battery anodes/thermal management	≈ ×4 by 2040 (NZE)	China (processing); Mozambique, Brazil (mining)
Silicon (Si/polysilicon)	PV and semiconductors	Demand linked to PV expansion and chips	China (polysilicon); US/DE (growing capacity)
Rare earths (Nd, Dy, Pr…)	Magnets (wind/EV)	≈ ×2 by 2040 (NZE)	China dominates refining; Australia/US/Asia extract
Gallium/Germanium/Indium	Optoelectronics/special semiconductors	Low volume, high value	China/EU/US (depending on metal)
SiC (silicon carbide)	HV power semiconductors	Module market: ~USD 0.77→~5.9 bn (2024–2032)	China, Germany, Japan, US
GaN (gallium nitride)	High frequency/efficiency	Growing adoption in data centres/AI	JP, KR, US; global fab
PGMs (Pt/Ir/Pd)	H₂ electrolysers/catalysts	Demand linked to hydrogen/green chemistry	South Africa, Russia, Canada

Key materials and location

The most relevant materials include copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite and rare earths, along with new semiconductors such as silicon carbide (SiC) and gallium nitride (GaN). Data from 2024–2025 show an increase in demand of between 50% and 800% depending on the material and the decarbonization scenario.

Power electronics and new materials

As we continue to drive innovation for energy resilience and security, critical minerals are becoming increasingly important. One area where work is being done in this regard is power electronics. Power electronics, the invisible engine of the energy transition, rely on advanced semiconductors that enable more efficient energy control and conversion. Silicon remains predominant, but wide-bandgap semiconductors such as SiC and GaN are transforming the industry due to their ability to operate at higher voltages, frequencies and temperatures.

Geopolitics and Supply Chain Control

The growing development of technologies to reduce carbon footprints is associated with an extraordinary increase in the consumption of critical raw materials. Consequently, there is an urgent need to expand the capacity of our supply chain to meet this demand. The concentration of refining in Asia, especially in China, and Europe’s reliance on imports exceeding 90% for certain materials, pose strategic risks. Policies such as the Critical Raw Materials Act seek to reduce this dependence through extraction, processing and recycling targets within the EU, ensuring a secure and sustainable supply.

Outlook towards 2050

In order to achieve Net Zero targets, global demand for critical minerals will increase three to sixfold by 2050. This growth will require balancing mining expansion with sustainable practices, innovation in recycling and technological substitution, ensuring traceability and environmental compliance. Artificial intelligence will play a key role in this regard. One example is the project ‘A Targeted Machine Learning Approach towards REE Free Permanent Magnets’, is developing computational models to design new types of permanent magnets that could replace rare earth magnets and, over time, could be manufactured in the laboratory. On the other hand, addressing this challenge requires coordinated and comprehensive strategies to strengthen the supply of minerals through collaboration between academia, research, industry, investors and government.

IEA 2024 (NZE) projects Li ×8; graphite ×4; Ni/Co/REE ×2; Cu +50% by 2040. On an infrastructure scale 2022–2050, ~6,500 Mt of end-use materials (≈95% steel, aluminium, copper) are estimated to be needed to deploy the transition (Energy Transitions Commission). The added value of strategic minerals could reach ~USD 400 bn at peak scale.

Bottlenecks: mining timelines (10–15 years), intensive chemical refining, permitting/ESG, recycling still in its infancy (magnets, graphite, SiC/GaN) and maritime logistics. Levers: accelerating responsible mining, building refining with partners, circular economy and design for recycling, substitution/efficiency and ESG traceability.

Conclusion

The future of energy will depend on both electrons and atoms. The discovery of materials and process innovation, together with the security of supply of strategic minerals, will be as decisive as the ability to generate clean energy. Integrating material management into energy planning is the next step towards a sustainable and autonomous transition.

References

• IEA (2024). Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2024.

• IEA (2024). Demand growth data 2023–2040.

• European Commission – Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA) and 2023 list of critical/strategic raw materials (JRC-RMIS).

• USGS (2025). Mineral Commodity Summaries – Copper (identified resources ≥1.5 Bt; undiscovered ~3.5 Bt).

• Energy Transitions Commission (2024). Scale-up of critical materials and resources required for energy transition.

• UNEP (2024–2025). Critical energy transition minerals – market outlook (~USD 400 bn).

• SiC (module market 2024–2032): market forecasts (CAGR ~28–30%).

• GaN trends and DC architecture in data centres/AI (2024–2025).

Silver Image by Joachim Esche.